Election thoughts:

First, most gains made my McCain prior to the economic crisis have been wiped out. Instead of padding a lead or counteracting Obama's "red state" gains by picking off "blue states," McCain is on his heels, trying to simply hold enough of those Bush red states to win. It's unlikely that he'll hold enough of them. He is certain to lose Iowa and near-certain to lose New Mexico. With the loss of Colorado or Virginia, he's done. The odds are that he'll lose both. He has to somehow steal away a blue state in order to compete, which now has become a monumental task in light of the present economy.

Second, the aforementioned reality and some internal polling shed light upon McCain's surprising strategy of fighting for Pennsylvania. Many pundits have been critical of this strategy (and argue that he should fight for VA and CO), noting that he runs behind Obama in PA by about 13 points in the RCP polling average (realclearpolitics.com). Yet McCain's strategy makes since. He runs behind Obama in VA by about 8 points in the RCP average and 5 in CO. I just read an article today that listed CO as one of the states where McCain has withdrawn advertising money. Thus I believe McCain has given up on CO, believe PA to be his best shot. There are three additional reasons why PA is likely a better shot than CO and VA: they reject Obama's perceived "elitism" (cf. Hillary's primary victory after the "guns and religion" comment); Congressman John Murtha (D) has labeled his Western PA constituents "racists" and "rednecks" on subsequent days recently, inciting a backlash; Obama's internal polling reported shows him leading by only 2 points in the state.

Third, McCain must not only come from behind to win PA from Obama, but he must also sweep the remaining six battleground states (not counting CO or VA): Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Missouri, Indiana, and North Carolina. McCain is slightly ahead in IN and is neck-and-neck in the other five. My own inclination at this point is to figure McCain will lose PA, CO and VA by about 5 points a piece and perhaps one other battleground state as well (and possibly several more if the McCain ship begins to sink in desperation). I think he'll probably lose by a similar margin to Bush's victory in 2004.

Fourth, if the election is decided by a razor-thin margin in 1-3 states, especially if they were ones saturated by ACORN-sponsored voter registration drives, a legal battle of disgusting proportions may ensue, with simultaneous claims of voter fraud by Republicans and voter suppression by Democrats.

Fifth, Republicans are poised to lose 12-15 seats in the House and 6-9 seats in the Senate. This will give Democrats a 60-65 seat majority in the House (a feat not seen in years) and a possible filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. Republican seats are definitely going down in Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico (after Rep. incumbents retired). They will likely lose three incumbents in New Hampshire, Oregon, and North Carolina (the latter being the well-known Elizabeth Dole, wife of Bob). Of the five current battleground states (see pollster.com), Democrats lead in Alaska and Minnesota. Figuring Republican lose those eight seats, Democrats would be one from their desired majority. There are three more highly-vulnerable Republican incumbents running neck-and-neck in Georgia, Mississippi, and Kentucky (the latter being minority-leader Mitch McConnell). I think they'll probably just lose the eight seats.

Hope you all find these ruminations interesting and helpful!

God bless,
Stephen