Posted by
stevo on Friday, October 31, 2008 10:41:17 AM
With only a few days to go before the election, some of the races are heating up. I would commend to you a link (
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?print=yes&id=29267) that offers a cautious, fair-minded analysis of the state of the race.
The dynamics for the presidential race are fascinating: The national
polls show the race may be tightening to within 3-5%, Obama continues
to move traditionally red states into battleground territory (most
recently, MT, ND, GE and AZ), and McCain has an under-the-radar outside
shot at capturing Pennsylvania and/or New Hampshire.
Basic summation: Obama will likely win Colorado and Virginia, giving
him the necessary 270, +16. In order to offset those losses, McCain
has
to win Pennsylvania. The good news for McCain is that one poll in each
of the past two days have shown that McCain is within 5 points in that
state. There is also a good chance that Obama will win Nevada, in which
case McCain would have to win New Hampshire to offset that loss. McCain
may squeak out the remaining primary battleground states: OH, FL, NC,
IN, and MO. If he loses any of them, he's done.
Senate: With Sen. Stevens (R-Alaska) being convicted of corruption,
there are now 4 locks for Democratic pick-ups (VA, CO, NM, and AK).
There are three more leaning toward Democratic, in order of likelihood
of loss (OR, NH, and NC). That gives Democrats 7 of the 9 pick-ups
needed to have a filibuster-proof majority. The good news for
Republicans is that two of their previously-threatened incumbents have
become safe (TX and MS). Two of the three remaining threatened seats
still show slight leads for Republicans (KY and GE). There is one pure
toss-up: In Minnesota, Republican Norm Coleman has expanded his lead to
5% in the polling, but the state has same-day registration, which
typically favors Democrats.
Likely Democratic gains 7-8 seats.
The Republicans shouldn't breathe a sigh of relief if they keep that
bare minority--they have about 5 members (including McCain) who could
easily cross lines.
House: The Democrats could pick up anywhere from 15 to 30 seats. Both
the Democratic and Republican parties could surprisingly lose party
stars, Rep. Murtha and Rep. Bachmann, respectively.