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Latest Election Update


With only a few days to go before the election, some of the races are heating up. I would commend to you a link (http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?print=yes&id=29267) that offers a cautious, fair-minded analysis of the state of the race.

The dynamics for the presidential race are fascinating: The national polls show the race may be tightening to within 3-5%, Obama continues to move traditionally red states into battleground territory (most recently, MT, ND, GE and AZ), and McCain has an under-the-radar outside shot at capturing Pennsylvania and/or New Hampshire.

Basic summation: Obama will likely win Colorado and Virginia, giving him the necessary 270, +16. In order to offset those losses, McCain has to win Pennsylvania. The good news for McCain is that one poll in each of the past two days have shown that McCain is within 5 points in that state. There is also a good chance that Obama will win Nevada, in which case McCain would have to win New Hampshire to offset that loss. McCain may squeak out the remaining primary battleground states: OH, FL, NC, IN, and MO. If he loses any of them, he's done.

Senate: With Sen. Stevens (R-Alaska) being convicted of corruption, there are now 4 locks for Democratic pick-ups (VA, CO, NM, and AK). There are three more leaning toward Democratic, in order of likelihood of loss (OR, NH, and NC). That gives Democrats 7 of the 9 pick-ups needed to have a filibuster-proof majority. The good news for Republicans is that two of their previously-threatened incumbents have become safe (TX and MS). Two of the three remaining threatened seats still show slight leads for Republicans (KY and GE). There is one pure toss-up: In Minnesota, Republican Norm Coleman has expanded his lead to 5% in the polling, but the state has same-day registration, which typically favors Democrats. Likely Democratic gains 7-8 seats. The Republicans shouldn't breathe a sigh of relief if they keep that bare minority--they have about 5 members (including McCain) who could easily cross lines.

House: The Democrats could pick up anywhere from 15 to 30 seats. Both the Democratic and Republican parties could surprisingly lose party stars, Rep. Murtha and Rep. Bachmann, respectively.
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Election Status

The electoral prospects of the Republican Party are looking increasingly bleak...

*In the current RealClearPolitics electoral map, Barack Obama has fairly solid leads in enough states to give him 264 electoral votes.  If the election was tonight and each candidate won the states where they lead in the poll average, Barack Obama would defeat John McCain in a landslide--364-174.

*All of the "blue states" that McCain made competitive with the Palin pick are now out of play.  Since the financial crisis started, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and New Hampshire have all slipped out of play.  Several are now very solidly in Obama's camp.  Obama has also consolidated his gains in Iowa and New Mexico--two former Bush states.  He only needs one more to win the election.  The most likely candidates to switch are typical battlegrounds Florida and Ohio, though Obama holds decent leads in Colorado, Virginia, and Nevada as well.  He also is virtually tied in typically solid "red states" Missouri (more purple), Indiana, and North Carolina.  Remember, if Obama takes any of the 8 states just listed--which are all currently either tied or favoring Obama--he wins.  McCain would have to sweep those 8 in order to win.  In other words, you may be able to go to sleep early on election night if you're a Republican.

*In addition, Democrats are likely to expand their majority in the House by 10-15 seats.  That majority would be quite dominant.  Even more startling is the possibility of Democrats picking up around 10 seats in the Senate. Pollster has helpful maps, especially for the Senate and House.

Election results could very well be the nightmare scenario for Republicans: a very liberal Democrat in the White House and substantial majorities in both Houses--perhaps even enough to defeat filibusters.  From a conservative standpoint, the ramifications for foreign policy (e.g. rapid withdraw from Iraq, appeasement of Iran and Russia, etc.) and economic policy (universal health care, widespread tax hikes to pay for new spending) are near-disastrous.  There is even a possibility of three Supreme Court retirements and an inability of Republicans to prevent or even slow any candidate of Senator Obama's choosing.

The silver lining for Republicans: This could prove to a "rebuilding season," where such a pervasive electoral defeat will cause a purging within a rank of those who fed from the government trough rather than staying true to conservative principles.  With a more solid foundation, the future could be bright.

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