With only a few days to go before the election, some of the races are heating up. I would commend to you a link (http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?print=yes&id=29267) that offers a cautious, fair-minded analysis of the state of the race.

The dynamics for the presidential race are fascinating: The national polls show the race may be tightening to within 3-5%, Obama continues to move traditionally red states into battleground territory (most recently, MT, ND, GE and AZ), and McCain has an under-the-radar outside shot at capturing Pennsylvania and/or New Hampshire.

Basic summation: Obama will likely win Colorado and Virginia, giving him the necessary 270, +16. In order to offset those losses, McCain has to win Pennsylvania. The good news for McCain is that one poll in each of the past two days have shown that McCain is within 5 points in that state. There is also a good chance that Obama will win Nevada, in which case McCain would have to win New Hampshire to offset that loss. McCain may squeak out the remaining primary battleground states: OH, FL, NC, IN, and MO. If he loses any of them, he's done.

Senate: With Sen. Stevens (R-Alaska) being convicted of corruption, there are now 4 locks for Democratic pick-ups (VA, CO, NM, and AK). There are three more leaning toward Democratic, in order of likelihood of loss (OR, NH, and NC). That gives Democrats 7 of the 9 pick-ups needed to have a filibuster-proof majority. The good news for Republicans is that two of their previously-threatened incumbents have become safe (TX and MS). Two of the three remaining threatened seats still show slight leads for Republicans (KY and GE). There is one pure toss-up: In Minnesota, Republican Norm Coleman has expanded his lead to 5% in the polling, but the state has same-day registration, which typically favors Democrats. Likely Democratic gains 7-8 seats. The Republicans shouldn't breathe a sigh of relief if they keep that bare minority--they have about 5 members (including McCain) who could easily cross lines.

House: The Democrats could pick up anywhere from 15 to 30 seats. Both the Democratic and Republican parties could surprisingly lose party stars, Rep. Murtha and Rep. Bachmann, respectively.

Election thoughts:

First, most gains made my McCain prior to the economic crisis have been wiped out. Instead of padding a lead or counteracting Obama's "red state" gains by picking off "blue states," McCain is on his heels, trying to simply hold enough of those Bush red states to win. It's unlikely that he'll hold enough of them. He is certain to lose Iowa and near-certain to lose New Mexico. With the loss of Colorado or Virginia, he's done. The odds are that he'll lose both. He has to somehow steal away a blue state in order to compete, which now has become a monumental task in light of the present economy.

Second, the aforementioned reality and some internal polling shed light upon McCain's surprising strategy of fighting for Pennsylvania. Many pundits have been critical of this strategy (and argue that he should fight for VA and CO), noting that he runs behind Obama in PA by about 13 points in the RCP polling average (realclearpolitics.com). Yet McCain's strategy makes since. He runs behind Obama in VA by about 8 points in the RCP average and 5 in CO. I just read an article today that listed CO as one of the states where McCain has withdrawn advertising money. Thus I believe McCain has given up on CO, believe PA to be his best shot. There are three additional reasons why PA is likely a better shot than CO and VA: they reject Obama's perceived "elitism" (cf. Hillary's primary victory after the "guns and religion" comment); Congressman John Murtha (D) has labeled his Western PA constituents "racists" and "rednecks" on subsequent days recently, inciting a backlash; Obama's internal polling reported shows him leading by only 2 points in the state.

Third, McCain must not only come from behind to win PA from Obama, but he must also sweep the remaining six battleground states (not counting CO or VA): Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Missouri, Indiana, and North Carolina. McCain is slightly ahead in IN and is neck-and-neck in the other five. My own inclination at this point is to figure McCain will lose PA, CO and VA by about 5 points a piece and perhaps one other battleground state as well (and possibly several more if the McCain ship begins to sink in desperation). I think he'll probably lose by a similar margin to Bush's victory in 2004.

Fourth, if the election is decided by a razor-thin margin in 1-3 states, especially if they were ones saturated by ACORN-sponsored voter registration drives, a legal battle of disgusting proportions may ensue, with simultaneous claims of voter fraud by Republicans and voter suppression by Democrats.

Fifth, Republicans are poised to lose 12-15 seats in the House and 6-9 seats in the Senate. This will give Democrats a 60-65 seat majority in the House (a feat not seen in years) and a possible filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. Republican seats are definitely going down in Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico (after Rep. incumbents retired). They will likely lose three incumbents in New Hampshire, Oregon, and North Carolina (the latter being the well-known Elizabeth Dole, wife of Bob). Of the five current battleground states (see pollster.com), Democrats lead in Alaska and Minnesota. Figuring Republican lose those eight seats, Democrats would be one from their desired majority. There are three more highly-vulnerable Republican incumbents running neck-and-neck in Georgia, Mississippi, and Kentucky (the latter being minority-leader Mitch McConnell). I think they'll probably just lose the eight seats.

Hope you all find these ruminations interesting and helpful!

God bless,
Stephen

The Dems need 9 seats in the Senate to achieve a filibuster-proof majority.

Two seats are already in their pocket: Warner in Virginia and Udall in New Mexico.

They are running significant leads in two other races: Udall in Colorado and Shaheen in New Hampshire.

They are trending toward slight leads in three races: Merkley in Oregon, Hagan in North Carolina, and Begich in Alaska.

The race between Coleman (R) and Franken (D) in Minnesota is likely neck and neck (with very erratic polling).

Recent polls have them closing on some normally-safe Republicans in Red states like Mississippi, Texas, Kentucky, and Georgia.

Chuck Schumer, head of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee believes that Collins' (R) seat in Maine is vulnerable too, though that is unlikely.  See pollster.com for an interactive map on these races.

With this breakdown in mind, Democrats will likely pick up at least 4 seats.  I would guess that it is more likely they'll take 6-8. I'll currently predict 6, giving them OR and NC while keeping AK (Stevens is coming back) and MN (Franken is repulsive).  If Obama has a very strong night, however, expect him to take those 8 and possibly assist in an upset of one or two others (perhaps Georgia and MS) for a total of 9-10.  That was be a sweeping victory for Dems to say the least.

Remember, the magic number is 9.  Even with such a victory, mustering an entire party's vote against a filibuster would be quite difficult since some Dems represent Red states, but not out of the question.